What is the history of scenario planning and analysis?
Scenario planning was developed in the 1950s by Shell as a tool for integrating changes and uncertainties in the external context into overall strategy.
Today it ranks among the top ten management tools in the world in terms of usage.
Scenarios are complex, dynamic, interactive stories told from a future perspective..
What is purpose of scenario?
The goal in using scenarios is to reveal the dynamics of change and use these insights to reach sustainable solutions to the challenges at hand. Scenarios help stakeholders break through communication barriers and see how current and alternative development paths might affect the future.
What is Scenario Thinking?
Scenario Thinking, also called scenario planning is a structured process of thinking about and anticipating the unknow future, without pretense of being able to predict the future or being able to influence the environment in a major way.
How do you build a scenario?
Scenario Planning ProcessStep 1: Brainstorm Future Scenarios. In the very first step you need to decide a time frame. … Step 2: Identify trends and driving forces. … Step 3: Create A Scenario Planning Template. … Step 4: Develop a Scenario. … Step 5: Evaluate a Scenario. … Step 6: Update Strategies and Policies Accordingly.
Who invented scenario?
Herman KahnAccording to Fahey and Randall (1998 pg 17) the notion of scenario development is commonly attributed to Herman Kahn during his tenure in the 1950s at RAND Corporation (a non-profit research and development organisation) for the US Government, and his formation of the Hudson Foundation in the 1960s.
Who created scenario dance?
Focusing on the extraordinary costumes that Comme des Garçons founder Rei Kawakubo created for Merce Cunningham’s 1997 dance Scenario, this exhibition explores the collaboration between the Japanese fashion designer and the legendary choreographer.